Wednesday, April 26, 2006

Naples housing market has "totally collapsed"
But there are clear signs that the tide is turning in Naples. Inventory levels now are four times as high as they were a year ago, local real-estate agents say, largely because nervous investors are trying to cash out their gains before rising mortgage interest rates topple the market. "Big price reduction" ads are starting to pop up in the thick weekly real-estate sections of the Naples Daily News. Worse, at the end of 2005 Naples was 96.3% overvalued -- based on historical norms for home prices, household income, population density and other factors -- according to a quarterly analysis of 299 housing markets by Boston-based research company Global Insight Inc. and Cleveland financial holding company National City Corp. That made it the most overvalued housing market in the country.
California and Florida accounted for 18 of the 20 most overvalued markets, with Naples, Fla. leading the way. A median home in Naples now costs $367,100, according to the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO), nearly double what the study's authors estimate it should.
"In this coming year, we will see further announcements or further evidence of projects not going forward," McIntosh said. "Some people are not going to make a big announcement. They are just going to quietly crawl away with their tail between their legs."He expects to see projects fail and be taken over by their lenders or investors."Heads will roll," McIntosh said.


At 6:16 PM, Blogger L. von Shtupp said...

The Naples News contends that what they're experiencing is "following a national trend". Is that true?

According to a Reuters article out today:

"Sales of new US homes rose a much larger-than-expected 13.8% in March, the biggest one month gain since April 1993, a government report showed Wednesday. Even so, the strong new home sales pace come after a trade association report Tuesday that showed existing home sales picked up by 0.3% in March, defying expectations for slowdown, as buying rose in less-expensive markets..."

At 7:16 PM, Blogger Torgo said...


this news started breaking last year: Pipedreams of endowments

see also Follow-up: Pipedream

Torgo doesn't want to toot his own horn too much, but Torgo suspected this balloon over Naples land was part os Monaghan's rush...

At 10:41 PM, Blogger L. von Shtupp said...

Torgo has gift of foreknowledge, yes, but can he bilocate?

At 11:31 PM, Blogger Torgo said...


I probably ought to make a post with the exact way I'll see it all go down from this summer on -- it might be fun to see if history really does repeat itself.


Post a Comment

<< Home